Entendiendo la percepción del riesgo de accidentes en conductores: Un enfoque con variables latentes

Thomas Edison Guerrero Barbosa, Sebastian Raveau, Juan de Dios Ortúzar

Resumen


Las entidades gubernamentales y no gubernamentales necesitan herramientas de decisión que les permitan atacar la pandemia en que se han convertido los accidentes de tránsito, que año a año cobran millones de vidas en todo el planeta. Como la evidencia indica que el factor humano es uno de los grandes causantes de muerte por accidentes viales, esta investigación se enfocó en identificar variables que incidieran sobre la percepción del riesgo de accidentes mientras se conduce, incorporando percepciones subjetivas de las personas en la forma de variables latentes. El enfoque de modelación consideró la estimación de diferentes formas funcionales de modelos Logit a partir de datos de preferencias declaradas. Los escenarios hipotéticos de conducción presentados se caracterizaron mediante cuatro atributos: (i) velocidad de conducción, (ii) conducir en contravía, (iii) adelantar a un vehículo en curva, y (iv) conducir bajo efectos del alcohol o drogas. Además, se estimó las variables latentes Concentración y Conducción Segura que se relacionan fuertemente con características socioeconómicas de los individuos (género, edad, ocupación, y experiencia previa de accidentes). Los resultados indican que las personas con actitudes de conducción segura tienden a no conducir bajo la influencia del alcohol/drogas. Por otro lado, los conductores que no tienden a distraerse con otras actividades (ver el celular, radio, velocímetro o similares) mientras conducen, también procuran no conducir en contravía y no realizar adelantamientos en curva.

Palabras clave


variables latentes, percepción del riesgo, modelos híbridos de elección discreta

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Referencias


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